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For Danijal Hadžović, a journalist from Sarajevo, BiH is at ‘the crossroads between modernisation and self-destruction.’ If concrete steps are not taken in the direction of the former, then ‘we will not fail spectacularly, but will simply disappear in silence -  and that is perhaps the worst possible end for a state.’ 

Thirty years on, BiH is in what Danijal describes as a ‘kind of post-war limbo - neither in war nor in peace, neither in the past nor in the future.’ ‘We have institutions, but not a state; we have elections, but not responsibility,’ he adds. Reconciliation is almost entirely absent. BiH’s society has become accustomed to a ‘minimum of stability and a maximum of apathy, no longer seeking change - only peace in its own lethargy.’   

It is, as he describes, ‘some kind of endless improvisation,’ where the ‘political elites have been behaving for three decades as if they had just come off the battlefield yesterday.’ ‘We are in a temporary truce, and not in a state that should be building a modern democracy,’ Danijal asserts. Instead, ‘the political system that was designed to stop war has become a tool to stop any serious change,’ he muses. 

A culture of dialogue and cooperation has been stifled by what he describes as ‘sophisticated mechanisms of blockade, blackmail, and sabotage.’ Instead of enjoying the fruits of economic progress, too many in society have become dependent on public funds or act as ‘party sinecures,’ enjoying a salary and other benefits whilst undertaking little or no work. It is a form of patronage, a reward for loyalty to a particular party without contributing anything substantive to the public good. 

Instead of an education system that prepares young people for the demands of a ‘globalised world,’ BiH has been burdened with ‘a national curriculum that produces three parallel truths and generations that learn that “they over there” - that they are always the enemy.’

For Danijal, the most devastating thing is how people have come to accept such a reality - ‘there is no more revolt, only resignation,’ he tells me. ‘Young people are not trying to change the system, they are trying to leave it,’ he reflects, adding that, ‘this is the biggest threat to BiH today - not war, not politicians, but the silent dying of hope that things can ever get better here.’

‘Perhaps the greatest irony of post-Dayton BiH,’ Danijal reflects, is ‘that three decades later, we have survived everything except the future itself.’

Adnan ‘Adi’ Ćerimagić is one of BiH’s leading analysts. Born in Doboj, he was almost ten years old when the Dayton Peace Agreement was signed. ‘Four weeks later, my mother, brother, and I returned to Bosnia as refugees,’ he tells me, ‘to reach our home, we had to cross three borders—Croatia’s and two within B'iH.’ ‘Every crossing carried tension; the silence in the car spoke louder than words,’ he recalls. 

The immediate aftermath of the war was defined by trepidation. ‘We avoided Serb-held areas for months after the fighting stopped, out of fear of what might still happen,’ Adi describes, adding that, ‘I remember our first drive through what is now Republika Srpska: the checkpoints, the sight of armed police, the sense of unease.’ ‘Peace felt like a ceasefire, not safety,’ he reflects. 

‘Today, that fear is gone,’ Adi underscores; ‘there are no internal borders, no checkpoints - people move freely across the country, property has been returned, key war criminals have been tried, and the criminal networks that sustained the war have been dismantled.’ ‘BiH has regained parts of its multiethnic character, and even if fragile, coexistence is real,’ he concludes. 

Adi has written extensively about how certain clichés have muddied international thinking about, and ultimately policy toward, BiH. Several false narratives have come to shape and distort how people and policy-makers see BiH; narratives that have proven stubbornly resistant to observable and quantifiable facts on the ground.  

And yet there is a lingering perception that BiH has ‘hardly changed since the nineties.’ ‘Both citizens and outsiders still describe it as divided in three, ungovernable, even a failed state,’ Adi tells me, arguing that, ‘this view ignores its evolution and resilience.’ ‘By not recognising progress, it contributes to political, social and economic stagnation,’ he insists. 

The list of achievements is long and proud. As Adi notes, many displaced people have returned, wartime criminal networks have been dismantled, and everyday coexistence has reemerged. ‘The establishment of joint institutions, such as the border police, and the complete disappearance of internal frontlines are remarkable compared to the post-war years,’ he underscores. 

‘BiH has shown that even an imperfect peace can endure, strengthen, and slowly evolve into a more sustainable future,’ he concludes, even in the face of attempts to dismantle, including through violence, what has been achieved. 

Aida Hodžić, a diplomat from Sarajevo, offers a profound comparison between BiH and the former Yugoslavia. ‘Since BiH is very often portrayed in a very negative light, lately I have been thinking about what Yugoslavia looked like 30 years after the war - that would be around 1975,’ she explains. 

‘Some say that "it was better before", while others call that period "the prison of the people" - depending on their own experience,’ adding that ‘in my parents' house, I have this dual view of our former state.’

Having functioned for three decades after World War Two, the Yugoslav constitution ‘needed to be modified because the need arose,’ with fundamental changes in 1974 and additional technical refinements in 1978. The clock ticks on every constitution, no matter how immune to amendment they may appear.  

‘We now see that thirty years after the Dayton Peace Agreement, we have a clear need for constitutional changes because the current system seems to have reached its maximum,’ Aida insists. And yet, today, talk about constitutional reform is further away than it was when the April 2006 package was on the table. 

Ever the optimist, Aida believes that if a revision of the current constitution started, it would probably happen after the next elections in 2026. ‘If we let the negotiations last for a year, there is a possibility that new constitutional reforms will be adopted and introduced in 2028,’ she insists. 

There are plenty of sticking points. ‘Whether the issue of "Others" will be resolved, as the issue of "Muslims" was resolved in Yugoslavia, remains to be seen,’ she maintains, adding that, ‘the strong need to respect basic human rights is present.’

Aida is well aware of the dangers of comparing BiH with the former Yugoslavia. ‘Such a parallel can lead to people thinking that not long afterwards, Yugoslavia fell apart - that it lived only for another fifteen years or so.’ 

What transpired before does not, however, determine the future. ‘In my opinion, the significant difference is dealing with the past - transitional justice, trials for war crimes, continuous efforts for reconciliation,’ Aida insists, ‘now everything is visibly open and known, during Yugoslavia, terrible crimes were covered up.’ 

At the same time, Aida is sure that today's teenagers will say about this period in BiH that "it was better before." Some may have felt like ‘they were in a dungeon,’ because everything is, after all, ‘ part of the individual experience.’ Yet BiH today enjoys visa-free travel to the EU, and she hopes that soon roaming costs there will be abolished - ‘then we would hardly even feel that we are not a member!’

If there is one negative to surpass all others, it is that BiH’s goal against Nigeria in the 2014 World Cup - the country’s first appearance in the Finals - was never offside!  

To contribute your reflections on Bosnia-Herzegovina, please click here.

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Ian is a writer based in the Balkans. He is the author of 'Dragon's Teeth - Tales from North Kosovo' and 'Luka'. Follow Ian on Twitter @bancroftian.

Currently in: Belgrade, Serbia —  @bancroftian